Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.432553 1.494934 1.559586 1.631799 1.710452 1.793803 1.889182
2026-02-08 1.347178 1.429539 1.517641 1.619488 1.734745 1.862072 2.014704
2026-02-15 1.283634 1.378624 1.482608 1.605956 1.749735 1.913930 2.118486
2026-02-22 1.243402 1.348984 1.466850 1.609822 1.780906 1.982280 2.242426
2026-03-01 1.189663 1.300027 1.424976 1.579039 1.767036 1.993486 2.294478
2026-03-08 1.148244 1.262766 1.394053 1.558325 1.762395 2.013545 2.356555
2026-03-15 1.115566 1.233935 1.371191 1.545284 1.765214 2.041501 2.428995
2026-03-22 1.103341 1.228471 1.375478 1.564906 1.808991 2.123283 2.578740
2026-03-29 1.096072 1.228284 1.385630 1.591610 1.862423 2.220191 2.757116
2026-04-05 1.074073 1.209132 1.371349 1.586131 1.872693 2.258549 2.853279
2026-04-12 1.055761 1.193753 1.360971 1.584846 1.887911 2.303880 2.962847
2026-04-19 1.025949 1.163155 1.330328 1.555678 1.863511 2.291157 2.980659
2026-04-26 1.005937 1.144745 1.315164 1.547122 1.868090 2.321818 3.072551
2026-05-03 0.986426 1.126353 1.299338 1.536882 1.869521 2.347494 3.158182
2026-05-10 0.967368 1.107968 1.282877 1.525003 1.867794 2.367902 3.236325
2026-05-17 0.955998 1.098972 1.278180 1.528700 1.888178 2.422654 3.378971
2026-05-24 0.932265 1.073531 1.251227 1.500784 1.861180 2.401927 3.383775
2026-05-31 0.913288 1.053808 1.231306 1.481955 1.846699 2.400001 3.422773
2026-06-07 0.897952 1.038450 1.216750 1.470084 1.841927 2.413090 3.490980
2026-06-14 0.894991 1.039041 1.223326 1.487974 1.882340 2.501705 3.715499
2026-06-21 0.894591 1.042890 1.234261 1.512287 1.933530 2.611780 4.000341
2026-06-28 0.883333 1.032149 1.225118 1.507303 1.938914 2.643946 4.125390
2026-07-05 0.873935 1.023656 1.218793 1.506135 1.950109 2.686744 4.279857